Why property investors shouldn’t wait until 2026?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept the cash rate on hold once again—offering investors a short but valuable window to act before the market heats up. What makes this moment so strategic isn’t the rate decision itself, but what’s coming next: the First Home Guarantee Scheme. This initiative is set to unleash a wave of new demand, bringing thousands of first-time buyers into the market.
Rates on hold until November or even February 2026
Though a rate cut before end of year isn’t entirely off the table, most economists expect the RBA to keep the cash rate steady until at least February 2026. For investors, this holding pattern offers a bit more breathing room—but it’s not the only reason to act now. The bigger shift is coming from the First Home Guarantee Scheme, which is set to inject a wave of new demand into the market. Waiting for rate cuts might feel safer, but in reality, you may be missing out on the best opportunities.
The First Home Guarantee Scheme: A market mover
The First Home Guarantee Scheme allows eligible first home buyers to purchase a property with as little as 5% deposit—without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). This significantly lowers upfront costs and opens the door for thousands of new buyers who were previously excluded from the market. These buyers may be able to service a mortgage but often can’t enter the market due to an inability to cash fund full deposits.
Once the scheme kicks in, competition will rapidly intensify, potentially driving prices up 10 times faster than any rate cut. That means investors who wait could find themselves priced out of the best opportunities.
Why this matters more than rate cuts
While interest rate cuts may eventually boost buyer confidence, they tend to have a gradual impact. In contrast, the First Home Guarantee Scheme has an immediate and targeted effect—bringing in a large group of motivated buyers all at once.
This means:
- Price growth will likely begin before rate cuts even arrive due to increased demand
- Investors who act now can secure strong investment opportunities before the competition floods in
Early signs of growth are already here
Even before the scheme kicks in, Melbourne’s property market is showing signs of recovery. Domain forecasts the city’s median house price to reach $1.11 million by the end of FY26, from $803,424 at the end of August, suggesting we’re at the beginning of a new growth cycle.
Final thoughts: beat the crowd
To sum it up:
- The market outlook is strong
- Growth has already begun
- The First Home Guarantee Scheme is about to supercharge demand
This is a rare alignment of conditions. Investors who move now can secure quality assets before prices surge and competition intensifies. Waiting for rate cuts might seem safer—but by then, you may be missing out.
